Commodity prices to rise if transition to green energy is shortened
08 Oct 2021
The transition to green energy will take longer than expected but commodity prices will rise even further if this time frame is forcefully shortened, Conning Asia Pacific's chief investment officer. The next leg-up for commodity prices will be triggered by supply constraints, a lack of investment and higher regulatory costs, CIO Desmond Tjiang. It will take time for supply-chain disruptions to sort themselves out, but "the market might not take it, as it doesn't have patience," said Tjiang. Conning manages $124.6 billion in assets globally, of which about $2 billion is under its Asia-Pacific arm. Tjiang, who has a target for Brent crude prices of $90 per barrel, expects the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and their allies (OPEC+) to maintain a July deal https://reut.rs/2YhZjul, under which 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) would be added until at least April 2022 to phase out 5.8 million bpd of existing production cuts. Oil prices have been positively surprised by a demand switch from natural gas, Tjiang said. Tjiang expected global equity markets to fall by less than 5% from current levels by the end of 2021. "We are still overweight on equities but have been dialling back the risk in the near-term, given a more complex macro picture."
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