The growth in India’s solar capacity has been driven mainly by imported PV modules

29 Jul 2021

India is considering a new tender to develop solar power equipment manufacturing that doesn’t include a requirement to also generate electricity, a move aimed at sparking investor interest, according to people with knowledge of the plan.

In addition to separating manufacturing of solar cells and modules from generation, the government may also offer some form of financial aid, said the people, asking not to be identified as the information isn’t public.

There has been little interest from solar equipment makers in the previous manufacturing tenders, a hurdle to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ambitious plans of building 100 gigawatts of solar power capacity by 2022.

India has been struggling to spur its nascent domestic manufacturing industry, which the government estimates can currently only meet just 15 per cent of the country’s annual needs. The South Asian nation has been seeking to boost its capabilities through both manufacturing tenders as well as a safeguard duty on cheaper Chinese imports.

A tender issued in May 2018 was downsized and delayed multiple times, before being scrapped due to poor investor interest. It was replaced by a smaller version in January, for which the bidding deadline has been extended three times. The latest deadline, May 14, is expected to be extended again, the people said.

Anand Kumar, secretary at the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, declined to comment on either the extension of the deadline or the possible new tender.

India’s efforts to develop its own solar equipment industry will be challenged by both domestic policies and overseas competition, according to Bloomberg NEF analyst Rohit Gadre.

“A delinked manufacturing tender will not work unless it provides an assured long-term demand for domestic modules,” Gadre said. As well, “Indian photovoltaic module production will not be able to compete globally on its own as China has already built economies of scale and a strong supply chain.”

Solar PV Modules: Challenges and Market Scenario

Solar Energy is an important source of energy Currently Solar Energy fulfills about 0.5% of earth’s energy needs, however, as per several reports; Solar Energy is on the way to become one of the largest sources of energy. It is expected to supply 16% of energy requirements by 2050. India alone has set up a target of 100 GW solar by 2022. Out of which, 40 GW is to come from rooftop solar. Nonetheless, this journey doesn’t seem easy. There are obstacles at every step.

One of the biggest markets for solar energy is the distributed rooftop segment. This is a game-changer segment. Advantages of rooftop solar PV plant are multifold. It aids DISCOMs by reducing the peak demand during daytime and leads to decreased transmission and distribution losses as the power is consumed at the point of generation, it reduces land and interconnection costs, it has minimum government intervention as there is less involvement of government infrastructure, it can also be set up in remote places, and it also produces considerable savings for the consumer over its lifetime because of the increasing costs of grid electricity.

All the other energy solutions, wind energy, thermal energy, utility scale solar, nuclear and hydro and many others, require huge setups and investments. Then, these also require deeper and troubling government intervention. Hence, solar rooftop segment presents a huge opportunity for countries like India.

Despite the obvious advantages, rooftop Solar has not really taken off. In India, Rooftop solar has maintained a 10-12% share of overall solar capacity¹. This is much lower than other key markets such as US, Germany, China, Spain and Australia. Please refer figure 1 for a better understanding. Currently, India’s focus is to build more capacity and raise awareness about the technology in the market. At this stage, few topics which require attention are mentioned below.

In our country the prime factor for the slowdown of Solar Photovoltaics (PV) sector in last year was the implementation of safeguard duty on imported panels.

While imposition of this duty was aimed at incentivizing domestic manufacturing, it led to an increase in tariffs, resulting in the cancellation of many solar auctions and their retendering. This slowdown might be temporary, since long-term trends like falling cost of photovoltaic (PV) modules do remain in place. The growth in India’s solar capacity has been driven mainly by imported PV modules that enjoy nearly 90% share, as their costs are up to 30% lower. The safeguard duty was pegged by the government at 70% on foreign modules, but was introduced at 25% owing to pressure from energy companies. The industry is facing many other challenges which are creating a hindrance in industry’s growth.

Challenges for the PV industry in India

Cost and T&D Losses: Solar PV is some years away from true cost competitiveness and from being able to compete on the same scale as other energy generation technologies. Adding to the cost are T&D losses that at approximately 40 percent make generation through solar energy sources highly unfeasible. However, the government is supporting R&D activities by establishing research centers and funding such initiatives. The government has tied up with world-renowned universities to bring down the installation cost of solar power sources and is focusing on upgradation of substations and T&D lines to reduce T&D losses.

Regulatory And Policy Aspects: The major concern of any project developer or EPC player is usually from regulatory and policy aspects. For example, net metering policy in India is more than 2 years old now. However, implementation on the ground is still not smooth. At state level, the electricity distribution companies are not willing to sacrifice their premium high tariff paying customers. Such policy level inconsistencies are a big deterrent to the ambitious plans of the govt. to meet their solar targets.

Fluctuation in PV material price: There is fluctuation of PV material price in the market. A movement in price of Solar PV modules, which forms a major component of the installation cost, has the major impact. At Insolergy, we have seen residential solar market in India responding very fast to such fluctuations.

These aspects are likely to impact many solar projects in the country. But we believe that customization and offering value-added services with innovative solutions is the only way to succeed.

India’s PV module manufacturing sector needs serious attention: India’s manufacturing sector is set to take a giant leap forward, with the govt. announcing a slew of measures to boost domestic manufacturing in recent past. As a result, various CoS are gearing up to expand their production facilities in India. However, Indian manufacturers continue to face a stiff competition with Chinese & other global manufacturers leading them to operate insufficiently. There could be various reasons ranging from the govt.’s existing domestic insufficient content policy to fewer types of subsidies or the interest rates on raw material thus making them to be inadequate in promoting the domestic PV module manufacturing industry. However, the challenges in the current policy regime & steps India might take to better position itself to become a global leader in the PV module manufacturing needs a strong overhaul.Solar power is the strategic need for the country as it can potentially save USD 20 bn in fossil fuel imports annually by 2030 & domestic manufacturing can save USD 42 bn in equipment imports by 2030. “In the absence of manufacturing, India will need to import $42 bn of solar equipment by 2030, corresponding to 100 GW of installed capacity,” warns a report by KPMG, an advisory firm. The report further highlighted that solar manufacturing can also create direct employment for more than 50,000 people in the next five years assuming local manufacturing captures 50% domestic market share & 10% global market share.

Inventory Management & Capacity Utilization:Indian module manufacturers are operating at very low capacity utilization; however the capacity is currently sufficient to cater to the demand. The major reason for this is lack of demand for domestic PV modules & unavailability & limited access to raw material. Therefore, to at least keep their plants running, raw materials are stored in the warehouse. Also, the finished modules need to be kept in the warehouse because of intermittent demand in the market. Therefore, higher inventory levels for raw materials & finished modules increase the operating cost & puts upward pressure on manufacturing costs. More long term contracts with manufacturers could assist in this regard, allowing firms to procure raw material just in time to meet demand. Access to working capital is important for Indian CoS to compete against the firms from China/ South East Asia, who offer better terms.

Inferior Technology and Quality: The efficiency and quality of solar panels produced by the Indian players is not able to compete with its global counterparts. This is because of the lack of technical expertise and intellectual property with Indian players. An earlier ban of silicon wafer fabrication, which was removed in 2013, is one of the examples of setback which the Indian panel manufacturers have had to face in the past. This ban has considerably set back the developments in the Indian semi-conductor industry.

Another major issue is of dust in our environment. India being a highly populous developing country literally lives in a dust storm. And, as a matter of fact, even a single grain of sand can affect the performance of a solar PV cell/module. These challenges have had an overtly deep impact on the abilities of Indian Solar Panel Manufacturers.

Market Scenario of Solar PV and Future of Industry

The global Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Panels Market was valued at $118,704 million in 2016, which is expected to reach $307,204 million by 2023, registering a CAGR of 15.0% from 2017 to 2023. The key components of PV power system are various types of photovoltaic cells (also known as solar cells).

These components are interconnected and encapsulated to form a photovoltaic module, the mounting structure of modules which is manufactured for the grid connected and off-grid systems. Moreover, solar energy is renewable and helps countries to meet their policy goals for secure, reliable, and affordable energy and provides electricity access with reduced price volatility and the promotion of social and economic development. Therefore, decrease in price of solar energy has further led to the demand for production of solar power which in turn proves to be a cost-effective solution.

The solar photovoltaic (PV) panels market is segmented based on technology, grid-type, end use, and geography. Based on technology, it is classified into thin-film, crystalline, and others (organic and concentrator photovoltaics). Crystalline silicon solar photovoltaic (PV) is further segmented into mono and multi crystalline. Based on grid type, it is bifurcated into grid connected and off-grid. Grid connected is further segmented into centralized and decentralized. By end use, it is categorized into residential, commercial, and utility scale. Based on geography, it is analyzed across North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and LAMEA.

Recently, India achieved the third rank globally for solar installation capacity. Mercom India, a clean energy research organsation, has reported that the installed solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity has reached over 28 GW as of December 2018.

However, this accounts for only about 5.5 per cent of the total global cumulative installations. India may have emerged as the third largest market for solar, but a comparison at the global front suggests that India has a long way to go in order to become a solar super power.

India added 8.3 GW of solar capacity. It has observed a 13 per cent dip from the previous year, when the solar PV installation addition was 9.6 GW. The total installations globally accounted 104 GW for FY 2018, during which China and the US added 44.3 GW and 10.6 GW respectively.

Surveys suggest that global PV solar installations will see nearly 18% rise in 2019, finally reaching and may be surpassing 100 GW capacity addition. Although, at the end of 2019, we would still be far from ‘0’ emission future, rising PV installation growth and emergence of new markets within developing countries will get us closer to that goal.

China is predicted to lead the installation growth in the present year, but its market share will fall from 55% to 19% by 2023. Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa will scale rapidly and several new markets like Egypt, Span, Argentina, Vietnam will also see boost and may account for nearly 7% of global PV installation growth in 2019.

The government has also introduced a number of incentives and specific policies to make solar more attractive to overseas investors, including national and state solar auctions, increased investment in the grid and various favourable tax adjustments. As a result, the country has made global headlines for the record low prices being realised in its latest solar auctions.

India revises solar manufacturing tender specs to attract investors

More than a year and 10 extensions later, the Union government has revised the tender specifications for the first solar manufacturing-linked power plant project in the country.

Hoping to attract more investor interest, the tariff cap has been set at Rs 2.75/unit.

Solar Energy Corporation India (SECI) on Tuesday issued a request for a selection (RfS) notice for selecting solar power developers.

This will be for setting up 6 GW (per annum) of solar power plants linked to 2 GW of solar manufacturing plant.

A bidder can quote any capacity up to 1.5 GW of solar power projects linked to 0.5 GW of solar manufacturing capacity, corresponding to one project.

A total of four such projects have been put up for bidding. A company can bid for one or all four.

In an interesting amendment introduced in the new RfS, SECI has allowed using imported solar modules at the power plant and not necessarily the ones manufactured at the linked unit set up by the company. Earlier, this was mandatory.

“The solar power developers or SPDs would be allowed to set up a solar power plant parallelly with a manufacturing facility, that is, the mandatory requirement of using self-produced modules in the plants under this scheme will not be there. This can be set up either through imported modules or through modules made by the manufacturing unit being set up by the bidder or through any other domestic module,” said the RfS document reviewed by Business Standard.

Another addition in the tender is regarding manufacturing, wherein the companies can submit a bid for setting up manufacturing units for ingots and wafers as well as solar cells and modules.

Ingots and wafers are key components in the making of solar cells. The module is a collection of solar cells and panels are the single power producing unit.

The tender, however, has not included the long-awaited demand of the industry to include the existing solar manufacturing units.

“As this scheme calls for setting up solar manufacturing plants in India, commissioned manufacturing plants cannot be considered under this RfS. However, expansion of the existing manufacturing facilities can be done anywhere in India,” said the RfS.

After several extensions, the Central government, in January, decided to cancel the lone bid that came for setting up solar panel manufacturing along with a solar power plant.

The single bid came from Azure Power in tie-up with Waaree Energies. The government re-issued the tender in March and it was also extended again. The latest global tender closes in August 2019.

Indian solar cells and modules manufacture 'obsolete', says MNRE

At a time when the government of India is trying to decide on whether or not the Indian solar cells and modules manufacturers deserve protection by way of anti-dumping duty, the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy has said that the cell/module manufacturing capacity in the country is “obsolete”.

In a ‘concept note’ for supporting solar manufacture in India, the Ministry speaks of a “direct financial support” of Rs 11,000 crore and a ‘technology upgradation fund’, for solar manufacture.

The Ministry notes that the country has installed capacity for producing 3.1 GW of cells and 8.8 GW of modules (cells are used to make modules). However, “even this capacity is not being fully exploited because of obsolete technology,” the concept note says. Only 1.5 GW of cell manufacture and 3 GW of module manufacture are used.

It adds that the existing capacity is mainly of the conventional technology of multi-crystalline Al-BSF (Aluminium-Back Surface Field) solar cells, which have efficiency limitations and that very few players have ventured into the superior PERC (Passivated Emitter Rear Cell) technology. PER cells, which have a light reflecting layer on the rear, are more efficient and cost-effective.

The Ministry has said it would bring in a ‘Technology Upgradation Fund’, borrowing the concept from a scheme of the same name for textile industry. The TUF could be an interest subvention scheme (as it is for the textile industry) or capital subsidy for technology up gradation projects.

Apart from providing financial incentives for solar manufacture, the Ministry also proposes to “revive” the ‘domestic content requirement (DCR)’ scheme, which reserved a slice of the market for locally made cells and modules. The scheme was adjudged violative of global trade rules by the World Trade Organisation. Today, 1,436 MW of solar projects have been commissioned under the DCR and another 1,000 MW are under construction, but there won’t be any more. However, the government proposes to get central government-owned companies to set up 12,000 MW of projects using local-made products.

The concept note also speaks of capital subsidies to those who set up solar manufacturing capacities, with subsidies indexed to the levels of value addition. Conversely, they could also set up solar power plants to supply the electricity needed for the manufacture, with facilities to bank the power with the grid for later withdrawal.

Manufacture of solar panels (also called modules) start with polysilicon, which is made from silicon. Polysilicon is made into ingots, which are cut into wafers. Cells are made with wafers and a string of cells is a module. Today, only modules and cells are made in India, with imported material. At present, the only incentives available for manufacturing these is the Modified-Special Incentive Package Scheme, which is available to all electronic goods manufacturers and implemented by the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology, but there have been few takers for the scheme.

However, a few companies have expressed desire to set up manufacturing facilities in India—notably, Trina Solar and Longi, both of China. “If these incentives are seriously implemented and there is clear market visibility of the next five years, then more manufacturers may decide to establish manufacturing units in India,” says Mercom, a renewable energy consultancy.

India needs a solar manufacturing strategy

India has made significant progress in creating capacity for solar energy generation in the last few years. The Prime Minister’s emphasis since 2014 has given a new fillip to solar power installation. The unit costs of solar power have fallen, and solar energy has become increasingly competitive with alternative sources of energy. India expanded its solar generation capacity eight times from 2,650 MW on May 26, 2014 to over 20 GW on January 31, 2018, and 28.18 GW on March 31, 2019. The government had an initial target of 20 GW of solar capacity by 2022, which was achieved four years ahead of schedule. In 2015, the target was raised to 100 GW of solar capacity by 2022.

Relying on imports

This rapid progress should have been made earlier, however. India is energy deficient, yet blessed with plenty of sunlight for most of the year. It should have taken a lead in solar panel manufacture to generate solar energy long ago. Despite the new policy focus on solar plant installation, India is still not a solar panel manufacturer. Just as India has had no overall industrial policy since economic reforms began, there is no real plan in place to ensure solar panel manufacture. The share of all manufacturing in GDP was 16% in 1991; it remained the same in 2017. The solar power potential offers a manufacturing opportunity. The government is a near monopsonistic buyer. India is regarded by the global solar industry as one of the most promising markets, but low-cost Chinese imports have undercut its ambitions to develop its own solar technology suppliers. Imports, mostly from China, accounted for 90% of 2017 sales, up from 86% in 2014.

Substituting for imports requires human capabilities, technological capabilities and capital in the form of finance. On the first two capabilities, the supply chain of solar photovoltaic panel manufacturing is as follows: silicon production from silicates (sand); production of solar grade silicon ingots; solar wafer manufacturing; and PV module assembly. The capital expenditure and technical know-how needed for these processes decreases from the first item to the last, i.e. silicon production is more capital-intensive than module assembly. Most Indian companies are engaged in only module assembly or wafer manufacturing and module assembly. No Indian company is involved in silicon production, although a few are making strides towards it. According to the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (2018), India has an annual solar cell manufacturing capacity of about 3 GW while the average annual demand is 20 GW. The shortfall is met by imports of solar panels.

So we may not see domestic players, in the short term at least, replacing imported ones. While the safeguard duty now puts locally made panels on par with imported ones in terms of cost, the domestic sector needs to do a lot more to be effective. For instance, it will have to go down the supply chain and make the input components locally instead of importing them and putting the modules together here. Public procurement is the way forward. The government is still free to call out bids for solar power plants with the requirement that these be made fully in India. This will not violate any World Trade Organization commitment. However, no bids will be received as manufacturing facilities for these do not exist in the country. But as Ajay Shankar, former Secretary, Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion, argues, if the bids were large enough with supplies spread over years, which gives enough time for a green field investment to be made for manufacturing in India, then bidders will emerge and local manufacturing can begin.

Lessons from China

China’s cost advantage derives from capabilities on three fronts. The first is core competence. The six largest Chinese manufacturers had core technical competence in semiconductors before they turned to manufacturing solar cells at the turn of the century. It takes time for companies to learn and put in action new technologies. When the solar industry in China began to grow, Chinese companies already possessed the know-how. Experts suggest that the human and technical learning curve could be five to 10 years. Indian companies had no learning background in semiconductors when the solar industry in India began to grow from 2011. State governments need to support semiconductor production as part of a determined industrial policy to develop this capacity for the future.

The second source of cost advantage for China comes from government policy. The Chinese government has subsidised land acquisition, raw material, labour and export, among others. None of this is matched by the Indian government. Perhaps even more important is commitment by the government to procure over the long run — without that the investment in building up the design and manufacturing for each of the four stages of production of solar power equipment would come to nought.

The third is the cost of capital. The cost of debt in India (11%) is highest in the Asia-Pacific region, while in China it is about 5%.

Fifteen years ago, the Chinese could also have remained dependent upon imports from Korea or Germany; they did not. Remaining dependent on imports only leads to short-term benefits for India. A continuation of the current approach means India’s energy sector will be in the same condition as its defence industry, where enormous amounts of money have been spent procuring weaponry — so much so that India has been the world’s second largest importer of defence equipment for years.

In the solar panel manufacturing sector, the Indian government allows 100% foreign investment as equity and it qualifies for automatic approval. The government is also encouraging foreign investors to set up renewable energy-based power generation projects on build-own-operate basis. But the Chinese government is clearly adopting an aggressive stance while the demand for solar power in India continues to grow, as does the government’s commitment to renewables. In 2018, China cut financial support to developers and halted approval for new solar projects. As a result, Chinese producers will cut prices to sustain their manufacturing plant capacity utilisation by sustaining exports to India. In other words, the Chinese strategy is to undercut any planned effort by India to develop the entire supply chain capacity within India so that dependence on imports from China continues. As a counter, India needs a solar manufacturing strategy, perhaps like the Automotive Mission Plan (2006-2016), which is credited with making India one of the largest manufacturers of two-wheelers, three-wheelers, four-wheelers and lorries in the world. This would also be a jobs-generating strategy for an increasingly better educated youth, both rural and urban.